Today, you’ll learn about the pain people will endure to avoid uncertainty, a possible link between nearsightedness and education, and a social media app that is helping improve the accuracy of doctors’ diagnosis decisions.
Today, you’ll learn about the pain people will endure to avoid uncertainty, a possible link between nearsightedness and education, and a social media app that is helping improve the accuracy of doctors’ diagnosis decisions.
Find episode transcripts here: https://curiosity-daily-4e53644e.simplecast.com/episodes/pain-of-uncertainty-nearsightedness-doctors-join-forces
Pain of Uncertainty
Nearsightedness
Doctors Join Forces
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[SFX: INTRO MUSIC/WHOOSH]
NATE: Hi! You’re about to get smarter in just a few minutes with Curiosity Daily from Discovery. Time flies when you’re learnin’ super cool stuff. I’m Nate.
CALLI: And I’m Calli. If you’re dropping in for the first time, welcome to Curiosity, where we aim to blow your mind by helping you to grow your mind. If you’re a loyal listener, welcome back!
NATE: Today, you’ll learn about the pain people will endure to avoid uncertainty, a possible link between nearsightedness and education, and a social media app that is helping improve the accuracy of doctors’ diagnosis decisions.
CALLI: Without further ado, let’s satisfy some curiosity!
[SFX: WHOOSH]
CALLI: In a recent experiment, psychologist Stefan Bode from the University of Melbourne in Australia, strapped participants to a pain machine and offered them information in exchange for bursts of painful heat on their forearms.
NATE: This sounds like the start of a horror film. Maybe one of the Saw movies, I’m not sure. I have so many questions, but lemme make sure I’m understanding correctly: he’d give them information if they let him inflict pain upon them?
CALLI: Yep. And he found that in about 75% of the trials - at least on the lowest pain setting - people were willing to feel pain just to get some information.
NATE: Okay, yikes. So this must have been some pretty serious information, right? What were they, like nuclear launch codes or winning lotto numbers or something?
CALLI: This is where this story takes a weird twist: the information was basically useless, and they knew it.
NATE: Hold on. People were willing to endure pain for useless information?
CALLI: Yes. So let me back up a little bit. Between 2009 and 2015, a series of experiments with macaque monkeys showed something pretty weird. The macaques were given little rewards for doing certain tasks on a computer…
NATE: …just a typical day at the office…
CALLI: Right? But once the rewards were established, researchers added a new spin. If the macaques were willing to give up a little bit of their reward, the researchers would show them what future rewards looked like.
NATE: Like…the researchers weren’t actually giving them the reward? Just showing them what it would be?
CALLI: Right, exactly. And they found that the monkeys were willing to give up a little bit of what they had just gotten to learn what they might get in the future, even though that knowledge had absolutely no effect on the reward itself.
NATE: It was just…useless information.
CALLI: Yeah. And the monkeys gladly paid for it. So professor Bode in Melbourne decided to see how humans would react to that scenario. In an earlier study, he found that people are willing to pay money and even exert physical effort just to learn the outcome of a lottery.
NATE: But they weren’t winning the lottery?
CALLI: Nope. Just learning about the outcome of it.
NATE: And they paid money for that information?
CALLI: They did. So in the new experiment, he took it further.
NATE: Pain.
CALLI: Yes. He basically flipped a coin. Each side of the coin was worth a different monetary reward, but he didn’t tell them what that reward was at first.
NATE: Okay. So they didn’t know the reward, but that didn’t mean they weren’t going to get it, right?
CALLI: Exactly. They would eventually get the reward, regardless of what it was. And at that point they’d obviously learn its value. But Professor Bode gave them an option: he’d tell them the value immediately in exchange for pain.
NATE: But that information was totally useless! What were they thinking?
CALLI: Well…a lot of them agreed. And as the value of the rewards increased, so did their willingness to suffer pain to find out more quickly what they’d won.
NATE: To me that’s crazy. Why on Earth would anyone do that?
CALLI: That’s what Bode and his team wanted to find out. It’s worth mentioning that as the pain level increased, their willingness to endure it for useless information decreased. But still…
NATE: At least there’s some sanity in this story!
CALLI: But this is the thing - what they were doing was probably totally sane and normal. While they aren’t completely sure exactly what’s going on here, they say this points to our natural human desire to eliminate uncertainty.
NATE: Ahhh. Okay. That makes some sense.
CALLI: Plus, we humans really really value information - even if it’s not totally useful. In fact, they say the pain of not knowing something, even something with no value, is worse than the physical pain they had to go through.
NATE: As weird and totally crazy as this seems, I’ll admit it actually makes some sense. So…what’s next? I’m dying to know!
CALLI: I’ll tell you, but first you have to…
NATE: No, no!
CALLI: Good choice.
[SFX: WHOOSH]
NATE: Did you know that there is a growing problem with myopia?
CALLI: You mean, like, nearsightedness? I am actually incredibly nearsighted myself.
NATE: Yes, just like that.
CALLI: Okay. Hang on a second. Myopia has been around forever, right? Why is it suddenly a problem now?
NATE: That’s a great question, and it’s something researchers are really trying to figure out. By some estimates, nearly 30% of the entire global population is nearsighted. But check this out - they think that number could be as high as 50% by 2050.
CALLI: Whoa. What’s up with that? Why is it getting worse?
NATE: It’s not totally clear…no pun intended…
CALLI: I didn’t even SEE it coming…
NATE: Moving on…there are a lot of theories out there about why this problem is getting worse, but a recent study has found a possible link between education and myopia.
CALLI: Education? I’m not following. What do you mean?
NATE: It’s a pretty crazy study that basically suggests that the higher up in grade level you go, the more likely you are to be nearsighted.
CALLI: But…the higher up in grade level you go, the older you get. Couldn’t that mean that nearsightedness is more likely as you age?
NATE: That’s what this study wanted to know. But they needed a pretty unique sample to figure it out. So it turns out that in East and Southeast Asia - including China - the rates of myopia in kids has been rising, even in very young kids. And it might seem like a problem that can be fixed with glasses or corrective lenses, right, but it’s actually more complicated than that. Nearsightedness can actually lead to worse conditions, like retinal detachment, macular degeneration - the sorts of things that can lead to vision loss to the point of blindness.
CALLI: Holy crap. I didn’t actually realize it was so bad.
NATE: It could be. So the school grades in that part of Asia are divided in one year increments, which is sorta like it is here, but there’s a little difference. Over there, your birthday could be on New Year’s Eve and your friend’s could be on New Year’s Day, but you are one full grade higher than her.
CALLI: Ahhhh. So that means they could study kids who are basically the exact same age, but in different grades?
NATE: Exactly. So they checked the vision of the oldest kids in first grade, and the youngest kids in the second grade.
CALLI: Gotcha. They were in different grades but probably pretty close in age.
NATE: Right. And they found that the kids in second grade were more likely to be nearsighted than the ones in the first grade.
CALLI: Whoa. So they ruled out age as a factor?
NATE: Well…it’s such a complicated problem, that there’s no way to totally rule out age. But they did find that the higher up in grade level you go, the less time you spend outdoors and the more close-up work your eyes have to do.
CALLI: Right. Looking at textbooks, writing papers, all that.
NATE: And looking at screens.
CALLI: Screens! Of course! We’re all staring at our screens all the time.
NATE: Bingo. So even though it’s really tough to show that education, itself, actually causes nearsightedness, it could be the activities that go along with education that are making it harder for us to see in the distance.
CALLI: So what do we do?
NATE: More research is needed - obviously - but researchers say there’s one super simple way to help kids avoid nearsightedness: go outside more.
CALLI: Ahhh. The great outdoors. Seems like going outside is the solution to a lot of the conditions we talk about on this podcast.
NATE: Yep. You could see it coming from a mile away.
CALLI: We had to end it on another pun, didn’t we.
[SFX: WHOOSH]
CALLI: Did you know that by some estimates, nearly 100,000 Americans die every year because of medical errors?
NATE: Geez. That’s not what you wanna hear.
CALLI: Sure isn’t. And some studies have found that up to 15% of all decisions made by doctors about diagnoses and treatments are wrong.
NATE: So if I go to my doctor with chest pains, there’s a 15% chance he’s going to misdiagnose me?
CALLI: That’s one way to look at it. It’s a problem that doctors and clinicians have been trying to solve for a long time. Everyone has a stake in this, right? Doctors want to get it right every time. But while medicine is absolutely a science, diagnosing a patient is incredibly tricky. But researchers think they might have found a way to increase accuracy.
NATE: Lemme guess. AI?
CALLI: Nope. Social media.
NATE: But I thought social media was the cause of all our problems, not the solution?
CALLI: This social media is a little different. So doctors usually see patients, hear about their symptoms, and then go off and think about it for a while. This kind of decision making in isolation is pretty obviously problematic. It’s always good for doctors to get a second opinion.
NATE: Sure. I mean, we could all use a second opinion in just about every important decision we make, right?
CALLI: Exactly. And doctors actually do talk to other doctors. In fact, a clinician will often send off their notes to an expert for an opinion. But that’s just one other opinion, and it can take a few days to get a response. Plus, typical clinics are set up with a senior-level doctor advising all the doctors below her. So the head doctor’s biases will be reflected in all the other doctors’ decisions.
NATE: I never thought about it like that. Doctors all come with their own way of thinking, I guess.
CALLI: Yep. So Professor Damon Centola, who has his doctorate in Sociology is also the director of the Network Dynamics Group at the Annenberg School for Communication at the University of Pennsylvania. He set up what he called a structured network for doctors to connect with other doctors.
NATE: Ahh. Social media!
CALLI: They built an app that doctors could download and use.
NATE: Like Tik DOC.
CALLI: My diagnosis for that joke is that it should be on life support.
NATE: Fair point, fair point. So how does this social network work? And can every doctor use it?
CALLI: No. So the app was actually part of a study. Before they actually build something for everyone, they wanted to see how effective something like this would be.
NATE: Of course. They’re scientists, they love studies.
CALLI: And this one was pretty cool. Nearly 3,000 clinicians took part in the study. And basically they were each given sample case studies to review. In the first round, they were asked to give a risk assessment based on the case study, and offer up a treatment plan. In the second round they were able to revise their opinions. But…one group of them was allowed to see the opinions of other doctors.
NATE: They shared opinions.
CALLI: Yeah. Same thing in the third round. So a control group wasn’t able to see anyone else’s opinions.
NATE: So they kept working in isolation, basically?
CALLI: Exactly.
NATE: So lemme guess - the group that worked together had better results?
CALLI: Not just better, they were on average twice as accurate as the control group.
NATE: Wow. So the diagnoses and treatments were basically twice as good? Is this just like the law of averages?
CALLI: Not exactly. Because if that were the case, the worst doctors would get better, and the best doctors would get worse, right? They’d kinda average out. But that’s not what happened. In the study, the doctors who were least accurate in the first round actually showed remarkable improvement in the next rounds. And the ones who were the most accurate at first just kept on being great.
NATE: I mean…this seems too good to be true. This kind of collaboration made everyone better? What’s the catch?
CALLI: There really is no catch. The clinicians were anonymous, as well, which they think helped remove that bias we were talking about. And what’s even better, each round only took about twenty minutes.
NATE: So a network like this could help doctors make faster diagnoses that are twice as likely to be accurate? When will this thing hit the app store?!
CALLI: Hopefully soon. They are working to get it into doctors offices, and the University of Pennsylvania has funded a pilot program to get it off the ground. This could be especially helpful in clinics and hospitals in areas with limited resources.
NATE: Sounds like this social media thing might actually take off after all.
[SFX: WHOOSH]
NATE: Let’s recap what we learned today to wrap up.
CALLI: Researchers in Australia found that people were willing to endure physical pain just to learn information that was essentially useless. The study adds to psychologists’ understanding of our need to eliminate uncertainty.
NATE: Researchers studying nearsightedness in school children in China have found a possible link between education and myopia. There is some reason to believe that the more highly educated you are, the more likely you are to suffer from nearsightedness.
CALLI: Researchers have built a social media app that allows doctors to collaborate with each other. A study found that this collaboration helped doctors make more accurate diagnoses and better treatment plans.